Latine voters could tip the scale for California housing in November

Housing is one of the most important issues for California voters this election season, and this November, the growing Latine voter base could decide which ballot measures pass or fail at the ballot box.

Latinos currently account for almost one-third of all eligible voters in California and comprise the second-largest racial or ethnic group of eligible voters, after non-Hispanic whites, according to Latino Data Hub. In 2022 almost 50% of Latine voters were between 18 and 24 years old, the median age being 37, making them a strong deciding force in local elections.

The share of Californians saying housing or homelessness is the top issue facing the state has increased sharply this year, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. Statewide, 68% say housing affordability is a big problem in their part of the state, while 63% say homelessness is a big problem.

This November two main propositions on the ballot will tackle the housing crisis in the state, Propositions 5 and 33. 

Proposition 5 addresses affordable housing by lowering bond measure thresholds. Prop 5 would reduce the current voter approval threshold from 66% to 55% for bond measures that are earmarked for affordable housing and public infrastructure projects.

Proposition 33 addresses rent control, and seeks to allow local governments to impose rental control on any apartment building regardless of when it was built.The measure aims to repeal the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995, which currently allows cities and counties to impose rent control only on units built before 1995. It has become one of the most contentious and costly ballot measures in the November general election.

Supporters of each proposition say these ballot measures will help stabilize rising rents and the lack of affordable housing in the state. Opponents however have been loudly criticizing the measures in online attack ads hoping to sway voters into voting against the measure. 

The battle over rent control and affordable housing measures

Rent control measures are a popular topic with California renters, especially Latines, who feel increasingly challenged paying rising rent costs on the median individual income of around $45,000 per year. 

Proposition 33 aims to address that issue. In a September PPIC poll, 51% of likely voters said they’d vote in favor of Proposition 33. Other polls, such as the California Elections & Policy Poll, found voters were nearly tied on the measure.

While opponents attack the initiative as a “deeply flawed scheme that will increase housing costs and block affordable housing,” as stated in the Vote No on Prop 33 website, supporters of the measure say it’s an essential part of tackling the housing crisis, especially for Latines who make up a large part of the working-class population in the state. On the Vote Yes on Prop 33 website, educational videos are included, with one featuring actor Blair Underwood speaking on the California homelessness crisis.

“Rent control allows landlords to raise the rents every year, but at a moderate amount,” Francisco Dueñas, Executive Director of Housing Now, told Latino Times, “and there are several cities that have rent control across the state. For those families that are living in a home that is rent-controlled, it provides them stability.” Housing Now is a grassroots organization that advocates for housing solutions on a local and state level and is a supporter of Prop 33.

Currently, there are only 30 cities in the state with rent control or stabilization ordinances, according to Tenants Together, and the issue has been placed before voters many times in past elections. There is also the Tenant Protection Act, which is a statewide rent control law that caps annual rent increases. It does not apply to units built within the last 15 years. 

“Rent controls are a little bit of a distraction,” Michael Manville, professor of Urban Planning at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, told Latino Times. “It does not offer any kind of long-term solution to the problems that California renters have.”

Manville believes the proposition is well-intended but impractical. “Prop 33 does not offer rent control to more Californians. It removes a law that limits how strong a rent control law can be right now,” says Manville. “What Prop 33 would do is allow cities to write much stronger rent control laws.” Manville adds that the proposition may have unintended consequences by not allowing vacancy decontrol on new construction housing. “The experience that we've had with rent control laws that have those provisions… has shown that when you do that, you have a lot of unintended side effects,” he added.

Those side effects may affect the second ballot measure, Prop 5, that aims to tackle affordable housing builds, which Gavin Newsom has promised to increase since his first gubernatorial campaign in 2018. Kamala Harris has also pledged to ​​build three million additional affordable homes and rentals over the next four years as part of her presidential campaign agenda. 

The ballot measure would give voters more control over passing affordable housing and public infrastructure projects. Similar measures were popular in past elections but fell below the required 66% voter approval rate. Proponents are confident they will be successful in passing the measure this November. 

“Prop 5 allows communities to be able to say ‘yes, we want to build more housing in our community,’” says Dueñas of Housing Now, “‘and we want to be able to vote, to spend our money in that way.’” He acknowledges that the measure addresses bonds rather than tax spending, but he says it's a complexity voters don’t quite understand but will get behind with more outreach. “Prop 5 will allow our communities to be more engaged and proactive and say ‘yes, we want that housing in our community.’”

Dueñas and Housing Now are proponents of what they call Social Housing and have a Social Housing Report on their website to educate tenants about their methods. They say the report “is intended to serve as a rallying cry and blueprint for transformational housing futures.” Dueñas considers it a part of their housing justice framework and they include Props 33 and 5 as part of their advocacy. 

“We should have fairness for everybody with their housing,” Dueñas says, “It's not fair that you can raise the rent on one family from one month to the next, in a way that makes housing unaffordable to them.”